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二手房流通性骤降,未来置业形势剧变!

2021-6-23 15:37| 发布者: 温柔甜美女郎| 查看: 28940| 评论: 16

摘要: 部分省会城市银行已明确限制二手房贷款,全国大部分城市二手房房贷周期已达6个月以上,全国二手房入市被严控,未来置业格局将发生巨大变化。二手房入市受限背景下,需求端向新房加速倾斜,新房的稀缺性与流通性成为 ...

部分省会城市银行已明确限制二手房贷款,全国大部分城市二手房房贷周期已达6个月以上,全国二手房入市被严控,未来置业格局将发生巨大变化。二手房入市受限背景下,需求端向新房加速倾斜,新房的稀缺性与流通性成为重要考量指标,核心城市圈的核心板块将以稀缺的配套资源优势赢得溢价与流通。

现象 

二手住房限贷,入市壁垒加强

近期,“二手房限贷”消息广而传之,在业内引起喧哗一片。据了解,本月合肥18家银行众,已有13家银行不接受二手房贷款;重庆的建行、交通银行也宣布停止发放二手房贷款。即便部分银行仍然提供二手房贷款,但其放款时间也至少在6个月以上,并且大多要求贷款年限与房龄之和不能超过40年。简单来说,购买二手房至少要等待6个月的放贷时间,并且如果房龄超过20年则无法贷款。

二手房限贷政策,来源于2021年1月1日开始施行的《关于建立银行业金融机构房地产贷款集中度管理制度的通知》。人民银行、银保监要求,包括工农中建交邮储6家国有大行和国家开发银行的房地产贷款占比上限为40%,个人住房贷款占比上限为32.5%。即,《通知》严格限制了购房贷款规模,额度受制。

《通知》发出后,很多评论者唱空房地产市场,目前看来有失偏颇。《通知》已发布半年有余,银行的应对措施已经很明显:严格限制二手房贷款,为新房贷款放出额度。所以在大部分城市,并没有发生新房贷款困难的现象,而二手房贷款已经极为困难。

同时,二手房限售政策也在多地出炉。苏州二手房5年限售、西安二手房5年限售、南京二手房3年限售……多地严格管控二手房入市交易。

限贷、限售,多地已于近期采取紧急限制措施。无论是金融限制还是政策限制,二手房入市已经是“层层壁垒”。那么为什么要限制二手房入市?

新房市场可以受土地供应、限购政策双重调控,而二手房市场因为基本量大、由个人买卖、监管难度高,则处于“不受控”区域。又因二手房基本量巨大,所以一旦房价发生大涨大跌现象,二手房市场则会出现囤货或抛售潮,会对整体房地产市场产生恶劣影响。

国家统计局公布数据,1-4月全国大中型城市二手房房价回温速度速度加快,普遍同比上涨4%以上,较新房价格上涨趋势更加明显。叠加通货膨胀(5月PPI工业产品价格上升已经破8%)、部分城市(北京、合肥、重庆等)地价热度空前等综合性因素影响,二手房房价上涨预期较为清晰,本轮限贷、限售措施的施压,必然是强化对二手房房价上涨的压制。

在整体价格上涨的背景下, 通过限售、限贷政策无疑是降低二手房流动性的利器。此举更为未来消费者提出新的置业要求——要购买流动性高的产品。

置业形势 

稀缺性与流动性成为置业核心指标

流动性与风险性是当下资产配置的两大衡量标准,股票、期货等金融性投资渠道风险性高、流动性高,房地产则呈现风险性低、流动性低的特点。因房产的风险性短期不会产生较大变化,所以在做房产配置时更多应考虑流动性的影响,即在同类产品中应尽量挑选容易变现的产品。

那么未来什么样的房产更容易流通变现?

我们可以观察市场上价格持续上涨、不受整体供需影响、受政策端影响较小的房产,这些房产通常具有以下特点:

1.区域人口持续增长,需求端大于供给端,价格能够稳定上升,没有下跌风险;

2.处于核心都市圈各区域的核心板块,是人口、经济、产业的聚集区域,虹吸效应明显,房产热度稳定;

3.具有完整且高端的商业、教育配套,高端的商业与教育配套是增加流动性的重要工具,也是需求端较集中的痛点;

4.具备稀缺的生态底板,且进行了现代化开发,可以为居民提供“唯一”的生态绿肺与休闲场地。

总结来看,核心都市圈的人口增长区域、具有完善商业、高端教育、优质生态的房产,一定是未来核心需求的焦点,又因为资源的稀缺性,其抗风险、抗通胀能力、流通变现能力也会是同类产品中最优质的。

以首都都市圈为例,2021-2020年北京人口新增228万,其中非本地人口新增180万人;环京地区(廊坊、固安、北三县等)也迎来巨量人口增长,10年新增110万人,平均年增长率为2.5%,远远高于0.36%的全国平均水平。

首都都市圈具有明显的虹吸效应,全国人口、企业、资金向大北京聚集。但北京市内房价普遍已经过6万/㎡,5月新出让的29块土地中更有10块售价将超过7万/㎡,对当下的置业青年来说可谓是“可望不可及”。

但最近一则政策则为北京青年指出出路——京南固安区域放宽落户政策,“零门槛”即可落户固安,快速取得购房资格,且北部新城的价格仅需1.4万/㎡。目前,各落户窗口已排队至12月底,预估已有近6万人排队落户。

固安区域拥有1条城铁、5条高速、3条公交路线接连北京,40分钟即可通达北京南三环。同时,固安也是人口增长率排名第二的环京区域,每年有4-5万人抢占落户,且增长率逐年上升,人口增长势力较明显。

从购房政策、人口态势、通勤条件来看,固安是北京青年“无压力”购房的极佳选择。那么在固安区域如何选择?

我们可以参考两个重要案例:纽约中央公园与英国海德公园,这两个区域不仅坐享最大的生态公园,还是该区域的商业、交通、文化中心,资源极为丰富,所以房价也一直引领全国。最重要的是,在2008年次贷危机面签,该区域房产未跌反而升值10%-30%,可以说是“绝对硬通货”。

如果以上面两个案例进行对标,固安最佳板块便浮出水面——固安中央公园附近的房产。

固安中央公园坐享占地20.5万㎡的中央公园、30万㎡的超级商圈、2平方公里的科创CBD中心、北京八中分校教育等综合配套,是京南区域规格最高的生态、商业、交通、教育中心,其优质资源具有唯一性,扛通胀能力高,且具备非常高的升值潜力,是京南区域最值得入手的板块。

(固安中央公园核心区鸟瞰图)

固安中央公园区域以都市CBD为范本,未来规划超高层商业配套、超高层办公大楼与全业态服务体系,落成后将更具备CBD气质。

(固安中央公园核心区商业配套效果图)

整体来看,固安中央公园板块完全符合处于全国核心都市圈、区域人口持续增长、商业/教育配套高端、生态底板稀缺等严格条件,其具备上涨潜力高、流通性强、抗通胀能力强优秀特质。价格上看,该板块1.5-1.6/㎡的单价也是北京青年的极佳选择。

全国二手房流通性降低趋势已非常明显,未来置业形式将更加复杂,各位看官,应谨慎评估风险与流通。


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